Premier League (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 40%
A 35% home win. The market says 26%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wolverhampton Wanderers35%26%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Sunderland40%47%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 74% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 36% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
- Apr 10 · at West Ham United (A)0-4
- Mar 16 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- Mar 6 · v Liverpool (H)1-3
Sunderland
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 24 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-5
- Apr 19 · at Aston Villa (A)3-4
- Apr 12 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-0
- Mar 22 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.