National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Worthing FC vs Solihull Moors
Likeliest: Worthing FC win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Worthing FC49%48%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Solihull Moors27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Worthing FC
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Gateshead (A)2-1
- Sep 29 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v FC Halifax Town (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Hartlepool United (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Hornchurch (H)1-0
Solihull Moors
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v FC Halifax Town (H)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Woking (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · v Barrow AFC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Worthing FC | Solihull Moors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.