Championship (England) · Fri, Aug 28 · 19:00 · Wrexham vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 52%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham52%39%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Birmingham City23%32%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 48% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 55% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 26 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
Birmingham City
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 25 · v Brentford (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Swansea City (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.