Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 15:00 · Wrexham vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham69%40%+30
OursMarket
Draw19%29%−9
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers11%31%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 69% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 60% | −30 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 71% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 56% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Nov 26 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-0
- Nov 8 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-0
- Nov 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-0
- Oct 31 · v Coventry City (H)3-2
Blackburn Rovers
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 26 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-1
- Nov 21 · at Preston North End (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Nov 4 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.