Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Wrexham vs Burnley
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 47%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham61%47%+14
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Burnley18%28%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 72% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 53% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 63% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at Swansea City (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at Millwall (A)3-0
- Aug 28 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
Burnley
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.