FA Cup (England) · Fri, Feb 13 · 19:45 · Wrexham vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 29%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham46%29%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Ipswich Town30%43%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 57% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 71% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 40% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 7 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Jan 31 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Jan 20 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
Ipswich Town
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 7 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Jan 20 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.