Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Wrexham vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 28%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham45%28%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Ipswich Town31%44%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 56% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 72% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 39% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 17 · at Bristol City (A)2-2
- Feb 13 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Jan 31 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
Ipswich Town
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Jan 20 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.