Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 35%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham44%35%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%0
OursMarket
Middlesbrough31%39%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 61% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 47% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 26 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Birmingham City (A)0-2
- Apr 7 · v Southampton (H)1-5
Middlesbrough
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Portsmouth (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.