Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:01 · Wrexham vs Millwall
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 37%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham53%37%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Millwall24%34%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 66% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 63% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 52% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Jan 31 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)3-2
- Jan 20 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Jan 9 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-3
Millwall
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 31 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Jan 20 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Jan 17 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · at Burnley (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.