Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Wrexham vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 41%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Preston North End33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 58% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Dec 26 · v Sheffield United (H)5-3
- Dec 19 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Dec 10 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
Preston North End
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Dec 26 · at Stoke City (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Oxford United (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.