Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Wrexham vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham55%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Preston North End19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at West Ham United (A)0-6
- Sep 8 · v Burnley (H)1-1
Preston North End
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Oct 10 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Watford (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.