Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 7 · 19:00 · Wrexham vs Southampton
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 44%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham44%36%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Southampton30%37%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 64% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 50% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 3 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · at Watford (A)1-3
- Mar 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Mar 10 · v Hull City (H)1-2
Southampton
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 4 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Mar 18 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Mar 14 · at Coventry City (A)2-1
- Mar 11 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.