Championship (England) · Fri, Mar 13 · 20:00 · Wrexham vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 50%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham50%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Swansea City26%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 59% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 10 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Feb 28 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-3
- Feb 17 · at Bristol City (A)2-2
Swansea City
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 10 · at Portsmouth (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Feb 24 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Bristol City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.