Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Wrexham vs Watford
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 67%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham67%33%+34
OursMarket
Draw20%29%−9
OursMarket
Watford13%39%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 61% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 67% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 71% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 46% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 10 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-0
Watford
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 9 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Norwich City (H)3-2
- Dec 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Derby County (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.