Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Wrexham vs Watford
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 72%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wrexham72%50%+22
OursMarket
Draw18%26%−8
OursMarket
Watford10%24%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 51% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 76% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 50% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 68% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wrexham
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 17 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 26 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
Watford
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 16 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Crawley Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Coventry City (H)0-4
- Apr 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-5
- Apr 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Wrexham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.