Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK 1902
Likeliest: WSG Tirol win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
WSG Tirol37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Grazer AK 190235%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
WSG Tirol
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v SV Ried (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v TSV Hartberg (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at Austria Wien (A)1-0
Grazer AK 1902
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-5
- Oct 10 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Austria Wien (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | WSG Tirol | Grazer AK 1902 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.