Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · WSG Tirol vs SV Ried
Likeliest: SV Ried win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
WSG Tirol34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
SV Ried39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
WSG Tirol
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v TSV Hartberg (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at Austria Wien (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
- Aug 16 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-3
SV Ried
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-3
- Aug 21 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at LASK (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | WSG Tirol | SV Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.