Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:30 · WSG Tirol vs TSV Hartberg
Likeliest: WSG Tirol win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
WSG Tirol43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
TSV Hartberg30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
WSG Tirol
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 2 · at Austria Wien (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
- Aug 16 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-3
- Aug 7 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)1-3
- Aug 1 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)1-1
TSV Hartberg
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 30 · v SV Ried (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Austria Wien (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)0-2
- Aug 1 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | WSG Tirol | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.