Super League (China) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:35 · Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
Likeliest: Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wuhan Three Towns34%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-3
- Aug 1 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-1
Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)1-4
- Aug 9 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Wuhan Three Towns | Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.