Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Taishan
Likeliest: Shandong Taishan win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wuhan Three Towns31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Shandong Taishan45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)1-3
- Oct 11 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Zhejiang (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)2-2
Shandong Taishan
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Zhejiang (H)5-0
- Oct 11 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Wuhan Three Towns | Shandong Taishan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.