Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:00 · Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
Likeliest: Shanghai Shenhua win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wuhan Three Towns30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Shanghai Shenhua48%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Zhejiang (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)5-1
Shanghai Shenhua
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at Svay Rieng FC (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)7-1
- Sep 17 · v Tampines Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)3-1
- Aug 28 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Wuhan Three Towns | Shanghai Shenhua |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.