Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Wycombe Wanderers vs Bristol Rovers
Likeliest: Wycombe Wanderers win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wycombe Wanderers51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Bristol Rovers25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wycombe Wanderers
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 26 · v Reading (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Wigan Athletic (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Chelsea U21 (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)3-3
Bristol Rovers
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Gillingham (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Rotherham United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Wycombe Wanderers | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.