League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Wycombe Wanderers vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wycombe Wanderers34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Luton Town38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wycombe Wanderers
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 6 · v Bristol Rovers (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · v Reading (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Wigan Athletic (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Chelsea U21 (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-2
Luton Town
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Leyton Orient (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wycombe Wanderers | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.