League One (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Wycombe Wanderers vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Wycombe Wanderers win · 39%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wycombe Wanderers39%38%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle38%34%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 53% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wycombe Wanderers
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Aug 18 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Blackpool (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · v Stevenage (H)1-2
- May 2 · v Rotherham United (H)3-2
- Apr 25 · at Lincoln City (A)3-4
Plymouth Argyle
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · v Stockport County (H)1-3
- Aug 10 · v Exeter City (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Northampton Town (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Port Vale (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wycombe Wanderers | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.