National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Yeovil Town vs Boston United
Likeliest: Yeovil Town win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yeovil Town43%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Boston United30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yeovil Town
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 29 · v Worthing FC (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Solihull Moors (H)4-1
- Sep 15 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v AFC Fylde (H)1-4
Boston United
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 29 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Fylde (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Woking (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Wealdstone (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Yeovil Town | Boston United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.