J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Likeliest: Yokohama F. Marinos win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yokohama F. Marinos48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Tokyo Verdy23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yokohama F. Marinos
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kyoto Sangyo University (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-1
Tokyo Verdy
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-4
- Oct 11 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · at Gainare Tottori (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Yokohama F. Marinos | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.