J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Yokohama FC vs Oita Trinita
Likeliest: Yokohama FC win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yokohama FC57%57%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Oita Trinita17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yokohama FC
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 7 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Kataller Toyama (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Imabari (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-2
Oita Trinita
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Imabari (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Yokohama FC | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.