K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 07:30 · Yongin City FC vs Ansan Greeners FC
Likeliest: Yongin City FC win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yongin City FC49%53%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+3
OursMarket
Ansan Greeners FC24%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yongin City FC
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Daegu FC (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Suwon FC (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Gimhae City FC (A)3-0
Ansan Greeners FC
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Hwaseong FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Busan I Park (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Daegu FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Yongin City FC | Ansan Greeners FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.