K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 07:30 · Yongin City FC vs Gyeongnam FC
Likeliest: Yongin City FC win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yongin City FC39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Gyeongnam FC32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yongin City FC
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Daegu FC (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Suwon FC (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Gimhae City FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-2
- Aug 7 · v Busan I Park (H)2-0
Gyeongnam FC
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Gimhae City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · v Daegu FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Yongin City FC | Gyeongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.