League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · York City vs Accrington Stanley
Likeliest: York City win · 65%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
York City65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Accrington Stanley14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
York City
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Newport County (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Northampton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gillingham (H)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Rotherham United (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Chesterfield (A)0-2
Accrington Stanley
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Gillingham (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Oldham Athletic (A)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Salford City (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Cheltenham Town (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Swindon Town (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | York City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.