League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · York City vs Northampton Town
Likeliest: York City win · 53%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
York City53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
Northampton Town21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
York City
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v Gillingham (H)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Rotherham United (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Chesterfield (A)0-2
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Swindon Town (H)4-0
Northampton Town
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 6 · at Cambridge United (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Rotherham United (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Newport County (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Crawley Town (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | York City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.