League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · York City vs Port Vale
Likeliest: York City win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
York City50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Port Vale23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
York City
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Newport County (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Northampton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gillingham (H)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Rotherham United (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Chesterfield (A)0-2
Port Vale
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Chesterfield (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Grimsby Town (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.