Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:00 · Young Boys vs FC Luzern
Likeliest: Young Boys win · 53%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 23%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Young Boys53%63%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
FC Luzern27%18%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 77% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 82% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 37% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 77% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Young Boys
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 1 · at FC Zürich (A)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Basel (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · v FC Vaduz (H)4-2
- Aug 8 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)2-2
- Aug 1 · at FC Thun (A)6-0
FC Luzern
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 2 · v FC Vaduz (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Servette FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)2-2
- Aug 2 · at FC Sion (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Young Boys | FC Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.