Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:35 · Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Likeliest: Yunnan Yukun win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yunnan Yukun56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yunnan Yukun
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)1-7
- Sep 6 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)5-0
- Aug 29 · at Zhejiang (A)0-6
- Aug 22 · at Beijing Guoan (A)3-3
- Aug 15 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)3-1
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Shandong Taishan (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Yunnan Yukun | Chongqing Tonglianglong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.