Super League (China) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:35 · Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren FC
Likeliest: Yunnan Yukun win · 52%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yunnan Yukun52%54%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Liaoning Tieren FC24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 70% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 66% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 69% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yunnan Yukun
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · at Zhejiang (A)0-6
- Aug 22 · at Beijing Guoan (A)3-3
- Aug 15 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)1-0
- Aug 1 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)2-3
Liaoning Tieren FC
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)4-4
- Aug 15 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Yunnan Yukun | Liaoning Tieren FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.