Challenge League (Switzerland) · Sun, Aug 23 · 12:00 · Yverdon-Sport FC vs FC Aarau
Likeliest: Yverdon-Sport FC win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 42%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yverdon-Sport FC52%42%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
FC Aarau24%33%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 60% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 56% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yverdon-Sport FC
DrawDrawWin
- Aug 7 · at SC Kriens (A)2-0
- Jul 31 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at FC Winterthur (A)2-2
FC Aarau
LossDrawWin
- Aug 7 · v Stade Nyonnais (H)2-1
- Aug 1 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)0-3