Challenge League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Yverdon-Sport FC vs SC Kriens
Likeliest: Yverdon-Sport FC win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Yverdon-Sport FC66%63%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
SC Kriens15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Yverdon-Sport FC
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at BSC Old Boys (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Stade Nyonnais (H)4-1
SC Kriens
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Aarau (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)0-2
- Sep 1 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Yverdon-Sport FC | SC Kriens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.