Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:45 · Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Likeliest: Jagiellonia Białystok win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zagłębie Lubin31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Jagiellonia Białystok41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zagłębie Lubin
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Cracovia (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Wisła Płock (H)0-2
- Sep 15 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Wieczysta Kraków (A)1-1
Jagiellonia Białystok
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 15 · v FC Ararat-Armenia (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.