Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:45 · Zagłębie Lubin vs Wisła Płock
Likeliest: Zagłębie Lubin win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zagłębie Lubin37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Wisła Płock35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zagłębie Lubin
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Wieczysta Kraków (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Radomiak Radom (A)0-0
Wisła Płock
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Cracovia (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)0-2
- Aug 23 · at GKS Katowice (A)0-5
- Aug 7 · at Wisła Kraków (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Zagłębie Lubin | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.