NB I (Hungary) · Mon, Aug 17 · 15:30 · Zalaegerszegi TE vs Ferencváros TC
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 48%
A 33% home win. The market says 17%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zalaegerszegi TE33%17%+16
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
Ferencváros TC48%60%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 40% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 83% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 22% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zalaegerszegi TE
LossWinLoss
- Aug 8 · at Vasas (A)0-5
- Aug 3 · v Paksi FC (H)5-2
- Jul 27 · at MTK Budapest (A)0-3
Ferencváros TC
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 13 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-1
- Aug 5 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-0
- Aug 2 · v Vasas (H)0-0
- Jul 30 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Jul 26 · at Paksi FC (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Zalaegerszegi TE | Ferencváros TC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 63% |
| Both teams scored | — | 63% |
| Clean sheets | — | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.