NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:30 · Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvárda FC
Likeliest: Zalaegerszegi TE win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zalaegerszegi TE48%47%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Kisvárda FC27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zalaegerszegi TE
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Debreceni VSC (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Újpest (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Dunaharaszti MTK (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)1-0
Kisvárda FC
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Vasas (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Paksi FC (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Nagykozár KSE (A)9-0
- Sep 5 · at MTK Budapest (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Zalaegerszegi TE | Kisvárda FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.