NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:45 · Zalaegerszegi TE vs Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Likeliest: Nyiregyháza Spartacus win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zalaegerszegi TE32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Nyiregyháza Spartacus39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zalaegerszegi TE
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Újpest (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Dunaharaszti MTK (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at ETO FC Győr (A)0-3
Nyiregyháza Spartacus
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Majosi SE (A)8-1
- Sep 4 · at Vasas (A)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Paksi FC (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at MTK Budapest (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Zalaegerszegi TE | Nyiregyháza Spartacus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-6 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.