NB I (Hungary) · Mon, Aug 3 · 16:30 · Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paksi FC
Likeliest: Zalaegerszegi TE win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 29%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zalaegerszegi TE45%29%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Paksi FC32%45%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 55% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 71% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 40% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zalaegerszegi TE
Loss
- Jul 27 · at MTK Budapest (A)0-3
Paksi FC
LossWinDraw
- Jul 30 · at Panathinaikos (A)2-2
- Jul 26 · v Ferencváros TC (H)4-2
- Jul 23 · v Panathinaikos (H)1-2