Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 16:00 · Zambia vs Togo
Likeliest: Togo win · 43%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 62%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zambia21%48%−27
OursMarket
Draw36%29%+7
OursMarket
Togo43%23%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 38% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 77% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 52% | +27 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 68% | −35 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zambia
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Algeria (A)0-0
- Mar 31 · at Argentina (A)0-5
- Mar 31 · at Zimbabwe (A)0-1
- Dec 16 · v Congo DR (H)2-0
- Nov 18 · at Angola (A)2-3
Togo
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 25 · v Burundi (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Benin (H)5-1
- Jun 5 · at Central African Republic (A)1-1
- Mar 31 · at Niger (A)1-0
- Mar 27 · v Guinea (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Zambia | Togo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-5 | 2-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.