Premier League (Egypt) · Tue, Oct 20 · 14:00 · ZED FC vs Modern Sport FC
Likeliest: ZED FC win · 36%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 42% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ZED FC36%39%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%33%+3
OursMarket
Modern Sport FC29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 58% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ZED FC
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · v Azam FC (H)1-1
- Oct 12 · at Al-Mokawloon (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Canal SC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at ASAS (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at ENPPI (A)1-2
Modern Sport FC
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v ENPPI (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · at Asyut Petroleum (A)2-0
- Sep 9 · v Wadi Degla (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · at Ceramica Cleopatra (A)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Ghazl El Mahalla (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | ZED FC | Modern Sport FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.