Super League (China) · Fri, Oct 9 · 12:00 · Zhejiang vs Shanghai Port
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zhejiang33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Shanghai Port41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 71% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zhejiang
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)6-0
- Aug 22 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)2-3
Shanghai Port
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 15 · at Ratchaburi (A)6-4
- Sep 5 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)2-1
- Aug 19 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Zhejiang | Shanghai Port |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.