Super League (China) · Fri, Sep 18 · 11:35 · Zhejiang vs Wuhan Three Towns
Likeliest: Zhejiang win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zhejiang54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Wuhan Three Towns25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 70% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zhejiang
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)6-0
- Aug 22 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)2-3
- Aug 1 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-2
Wuhan Three Towns
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Zhejiang | Wuhan Three Towns |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.