Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Mon, Sep 28 · 16:00 · Zimbabwe vs DR Congo
Likeliest: draw · 42%
A 42% draw. The market says 28%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zimbabwe26%15%+10
OursMarket
Draw42%28%+14
OursMarket
DR Congo32%56%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 41% | −12 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 44% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 85% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 58% | 72% | −14 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 21% | +23 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zimbabwe
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 24 · at Sierra Leone (A)3-2
- May 30 · v India (H)1-0
- May 26 · at Nigeria (A)0-2
- Mar 31 · v Zambia (H)1-0
- Mar 28 · at Botswana (A)3-0
DR Congo
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 24 · v Equatorial Guinea (H)2-0
- Jul 1 · at England (A)1-2
- Jun 27 · v Uzbekistan (H)3-1
- Jun 24 · at Colombia (A)0-1
- Jun 17 · at Portugal (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Zimbabwe | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-3 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.