Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · Zob Ahan vs Chador Malu Yazd
Likeliest: Chador Malu Yazd win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zob Ahan25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw37%33%+4
OursMarket
Chador Malu Yazd38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zob Ahan
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v Sepahan S.C. (H)1-2
- Oct 8 · at Nassaji Mazandaran FC (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Persepolis FC (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · v Paykan (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Fajr Sepasi FC (A)0-0
Chador Malu Yazd
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v Kheybar Khorramabad FC (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Sanat Naft Abadan (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Shams Azar Qazvin (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · at Esteghlal Khuzestan (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Tractor FC (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Zob Ahan | Chador Malu Yazd |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-7-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.