Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 · Zoria Luhansk vs Chornomorets Odesa
Likeliest: Zoria Luhansk win · 50%
A 30% draw. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Zoria Luhansk50%58%−8
OursMarket
Draw30%24%+5
OursMarket
Chornomorets Odesa20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 77% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Zoria Luhansk
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 12 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Bukovyna Chernivtsi (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Veres Rivne (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · v Metalist 1925 (H)0-3
Chornomorets Odesa
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v Metalist 1925 (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Zoria Luhansk | Chornomorets Odesa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.